Associate Professor of the NU Graduate School of Public Policy Dr. Serik Orazgaliyev and the NU Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) Research Associate Dr. Aliya Sembayeva contributed to the writing of the 4^th Production Gap Report published by the UNEP.

Commenting on the findings of the report, the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated that ‘The 2023 Production Gap report is a startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness’. The Report is also widely discussed in reputable media outlets such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Guardian.

This is the fourth edition of the Production Gap Report, which tracks the misalignment between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. The report represents a collaboration of several research institutions from 30 countries. The report is externally peer-reviewed, with additional guidance and support from the UNEP, and review by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s government focal points.

The production gap analysis is based on recent and publicly accessible plans and projections for fossil fuel production published by governments and affiliated institutions. This year’s report features two major updates to the production gap analysis, drawing on the new mitigation scenarios database compiled for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report and changes in government plans and projections since August 2021. The report also provides individual country profiles for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries, evaluating governments’ latest climate ambitions and their plans, policies, and strategies that support fossil fuel production or the transition away from it. Kazakhstan is among the 20 major fossil fuel producers included in the report.

Contribution to the PGR is part of a related research project implemented at NU SDSN, which focuses on institutional challenges of energy transition in Kazakhstan. The next study that is expected to be finalized in 2024 is the project on Clean energy policies and institutions in Kazakhstan. This report will be published as part of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Case Study collections.

The PGR report may be cited as: The Production Gap (2023): Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises. SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G, IISD, UNEP https://doi.org/10.51414/sei2023.050